Inevitably after decades of forecasting the weather in the Sault, you're bound to be wrong once - maybe twice. The last five days I've eaten a lot of humble pie and taken ribbing from folks about how terrible the weather forecasts have been, and rightfully so. Of the three days that I had heavy rain and storms in the forecast this past week, it only rains once and even then, only for an hour. That's barely batting .333, which may get me a starting spot on the struggling Blue Jays but won't cut it when people are looking to plan their day.
The challenge this past week and a little bit for the start of this weekend is forecasting convective rainfall. It requires you to forecast something that doesn't exist yet (a thunderstorm) and figure out its lifecycle if it develops at all. By that I mean, trying to figure out where in the American Midwest a thunderstorm will develop, whether it will head towards the Sault, how it will interact with the Great Lakes, and whether it will survive the loss of daytime heating overnight can be tricky. There's a lot of 'what-ifs' behind a summer forecast when you check your weather app or your local good-looking weatherman's forecast.
Excuses, excuses. Let's move on to this weekend's forecast so we can plan on when to head to RotaryFest and enjoy the ribs...
Friday will be cloudy in the morning, but sunshine arrives in the afternoon with daytime highs reaching 29°C. Gusty winds will be out of the northwest in the afternoon and then weaken this evening.
Tomorrow starts with the chance an early morning rain and storms (dare I say after this past week?), but any wet weather will quickly move out by noon and give way to mostly sunny skies. Gusty northwest winds arrive in the afternoon with temperatures near 23°C.
Sunday brings mostly sunny skies, but that northwest wind hangs on and will keep daytime highs at 23°C.