Riverwatch: Best guesses on what Goulaigans can expect

For Ministry of Natural Resources staffers following the Goulais River flood situation, it's now a waiting game.

Things could get a lot worse.

Or the water could find a way into Lake Superior without causing a lot of grief to residents of the 50 permanent homes that might be affected.

One thing is certain, though.

If things get worse, it could happen very, very quickly.

"Down through the Grant's Landing area, potentially, some people's yards can begin to be innundated with water at another to metre-and-a-half of level," says the MNR's Kirk Dillabough. "That's not a lot when you're talking ice jams, because they can form and it can back up four feet sometimes in an hour."

The rainfall we received earlier in the week was expected to take 48 hours to reach the lower river.

Yesterday, all that water was between Searchmont and Kirby's Corners.

Today, it's moved downstream, to the area from Grant's Landing to Kirby's Corners.

River levels are starting to increase.

They remain below the flood-critical point, but they're high enough that ice is being pushed onto the shore in some locations.

Officials are now bracing for the impact of this week's rainfall as it continues to move downstream.

"I'm anticipating that the water won't fully be moved out of the system until later today into tomorrow morning," says Dillabough. "It's snow right now, but we're going to see that shift as we get warmer temperatures, where this all has to melt."

An inch of snow fell in Goulais River in the six hours between 6 a.m. and noon today.

A lot of rain fell overnight, which quickly resulted in increased flow of water through the tributaries. "We're going to have to brace for that next wave of water to work its way down through the system," said Dillabough.

Ice continues to move down the Goulais River in large sheets, jamming in some locations.

At the mouth of the river, the ice still forms one solid sheet.

"It has opened from shore, which allows the ice sheet to lift with the increased water flow coming down," says Dillabough. "Any increased flows will cause that ice sheet to break apart."

The ministry told reporters today that some parts of the river have been opening up.

Cooling temperatures overnight slowed down runoff, but water in tributaries continued to flow unimpeded.

The Goulais River is expected to continue to rise tonight and tomorrow at the lower section through Grant's Landing and the Pineshores Road area.

Melting and runoff are expected to continue over the next couple of days.

The snow pack is supersaturated and can no longer absorb more water.

A helicopter is expected to fly over river again on Saturday.

Goulais Fire and Rescue is helping to monitor river conditions.

Door-to-door notification will be proved if flooding appears imminent.

"It's going to be a wait-and-see thing," says Dillabough. "We're going to see it get a lot worse - or the water's going to continue to process itself under the ice and out into the bay. We just to kind of wait and see, but we don't want to take the chance of sitting too long watching it. So that's why we want to get this message out that we're seeing an increase and we're not sure how high it's going to go at this time."

The following news release was issued by the MNR at 12:40 p.m. today:

************************* The Goulais River continues to respond from the rain event experienced earlier in the week.

The river is below flood critical levels at this point.

Ice break-up is continuing to occur and is making its way downstream to the mouth of the river.

The forecast is calling for cool temperatures and snow.

Snow melt coupled with saturated snow pack may increase the chances of localized flooding. Ice in the river is still fairly thick for this time of year and rapid increases in flows can cause the ice to break apart and could result in ice jams.

Goulais Bay and the mouth of the river are still frozen.

This can cause ice jamming as the ice may have problems moving into Lake Superior.

Levels are increasing slightly in areas between Kirby’s Corner and the mouth.

This is expected to continue into tomorrow as the water from the rainstorm continues to move down the system.

Residents along the river should monitor conditions closely.

The Ministry of Natural Resources continues to monitor river conditions and sensors.

As information becomes available this bulletin will be updated.

Residents wishing to get updates on changing river conditions can contact the Ministry of Natural Resources at 949-1231.

In the event of an emergency caused by flooding residents should call 911 if they require assistance of emergency personnel.

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