Ontario NDP hot and Liberals not, according to poll

ABRIDGED NEWS RELEASE

BROADVIEW STRATEGY GROUP

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NDP surge to tie for first place provincially, Ontario Liberals in third; 43 percent want Liberal leadership review

TORONTO (September 17, 2012)  - A poll commissioned by Broadview Strategy Group and conducted by Forum Research Inc. has found a considerable shift in Ontarian's voting intentions since the October 2011 General Election.

Key findings:

• NDP surge to a tie for first place in popular support with the PCs (36 percent to 35 percent), Liberals fall to third (22 percent). Green Party support at 6 percent

• Projected seat count: 48 PC; 30 Liberals; 29 NDP; due to NDP vote being badly distributed

• Just 24 percent approve of Dalton McGuinty's Leadership of the Ontario Liberal Party

• 43 percent of Ontarians and 39 percent of Liberals want the Ontario Liberal Party to hold a leadership convention within the next year

• Kathleen Wynne leads pack of potential successors with 24 percent among those with an opinion, compared to 20 percent for George Smitherman and 18 percent for Dwight Duncan.

The poll was conducted by Forum Research Inc. for Broadview Strategy Group on September 14, 2012.

A total of 1058 Ontarians 18 years of age and older were randomly interviewed by Interactive Voice Response (IVR).

A probability sample of this size has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent, 19 out of 20 times.

"These results represent a significant shift in support for both the NDP and the Liberals since the last election campaign and the desire for the Ontario Liberal Party to conduct a leadership convention to replace Premier McGuinty [shown] is all the more serious as party delegates prepare to vote on that very question at the end of this month in Ottawa," said John Laforet, principal of Broadview Strategy Group.

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