Hurricane Paula expected to weaken

NEWS RELEASE

U.S. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTRE

***************************** PAULA EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD WESTERN CUBA SOON, EYE CLEARLY SEEN ON CANCUN AND WESTERN CUBAN RADARS.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR:

- THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO, CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR:

- THE COAST OF YUCATAN FROM CANCUN TO SAN FELIPE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR:

- THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD, INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1000 AM CDT, 1500 UTC, THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST.

PAULA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH, 7 KM/HR, BUT THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST LATER TODAY.

ON THIS TRACK, THE SMALL CORE OF HURRICANE PAULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TODAY, AND BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA BY TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH, 160 KM/HR, WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT.

PAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES, 30 KM, FROM THE CENTER, AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES, 95 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB, 29.06 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND - TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD STILL AFFECT A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHEAST YUCATAN WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN CUBA LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS FORECAST BY TONIGHT.

WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS LATE THURSDAY.

RAINFALL - PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA.

IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN, THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE - A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA.

THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

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