Hurricane Irene expected to reach category four tomorrow

NEWS RELEASE

U.S. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTRE

**************************** THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR:

- THE SOUTHEASTERN, CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES, INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

THE EYE OF HURRICANE IRENE IS MOVING BETWEEN LONG ISLAND AND RUM CAY IN THE BAHAMAS, AND AT 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC) IT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST.

IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

ON THE FORECAST TRACK:

THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH (195 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.

SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND IRENE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.

AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING IRENE.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM) FROM THE CENTER, AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES (370 KM).

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB (28.17 INCHES).

AN AUTOMATIC WEATHER STATION ON LONG ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 969.1 MB (28.62 INCHES) AT 700 PM EDT (2300 UTC) AS THE EYE PASSED NEAR THE STATION.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATER TONIGHT.

WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE TONIGHT, REACHING HURRICANE FORCE BY THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE: IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE, AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE BAHAMAS.

NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL: IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

RAINS WILL BE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE, BRINGING MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL TO 6 TO 12 INCHES.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY.

THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

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