‘Be cautiously optimistic,’ report says as Sault unemployment rate falls

That, according to November 2020 Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey figures relayed by the Algoma Workforce Investment Corporation (AWIC).

Sault Ste. Marie’s unemployment rate in November 2020 was 6.3 per cent compared to 8.5 per cent for Canada and 9.1 per cent for Ontario.

That shows a steady improvement over the last three months, down from a high of 11.1 per cent in July.

In March, the unemployment rate was 5.1 per cent, climbing significantly as a result of the COVID-19 precautions.

“Clearly the numbers are heading in the right direction and it is hard not to be cautiously optimistic. Having said that, we need to keep in perspective that the Labour Force Survey is based on a relatively small sample size and some businesses, sectors and employees have been impacted more directly than others. Also, the economic realities of the COVID restrictions will continue to play out as we move into the New Year,” stated Jonathan Coulman, Algoma Workforce Investment Corporation (AWIC) executive director, in an email.

Sault Ste. Marie’s employment rate in November 2020 was 62.9 per cent, compared to 59.5 per cent for Canada, 59 per cent for Ontario.

The employment rate has rebounded from a low of 49.2 per cent in May 2020.

The national and provincial rates have also bounced back from earlier lows, but they are still lower than previous norms.

“The increases in employment levels are a good sign (but) it should be remembered that a lot of the gains are hiring back of people who were affected by previous closures,” AWIC stated.

One should be careful before saying we’re in the beginning of a full recovery.

“As the economic realities and impacts of the COVID measures take hold, it will be a long time before our economies get back to pre-pandemic levels,” AWIC wrote.

Employment in Sault Ste. Marie reached 41,500 in November 2020 (the average level of employment over the past 20 years is 36,700).

Employment has rebounded from a low of 32,600 in May 2020.

Employment in the goods producing sector fell a bit, to 11,000, which is still higher than pre-COVID levels and higher than overall employment numbers in 2019. Although that’s smaller in terms of total jobs, the relative increase in the sector has driven the overall increase in employment.

Employment in the services producing sector has also increased to 30,500 from a low of 25,300 in June. 

Employment in the services producing sector has also reached pre-COVID levels, AWIC said.

So, just how is the unemployment rate calculated for the Sault?

AWIC states Sault Ste. Marie’s monthly Labour Force Survey estimates are based on a sample of the working age population (people 15 years of age and over). As an example, the typical monthly results would be based on survey completions of 205 households and these would be extended, assuming existing trends will continue for the entire working population of 66,500.

“This is all uncharted territory. It could change…(but) these are the numbers we have to work with and they are going in the right direction, so that is a good thing,” Coulman told SooToday Thursday.