APH doctor ponders possible COVID wave in the fall

As we enjoy the summer after two years of COVID restrictions should Algoma residents worry about a resurgence of COVID in the fall?

Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada's chief public health officer, has recently stated that everyone eligible for a booster dose should get their third shot before new and more infectious COVID variants strike in the near future.

As reported earlier, Algoma Public Health officials and board members have aired their concerns that another COVID wave is coming this fall.

Does that mean a return to mask mandates, lockdowns, lineups at grocery stores and adults and students working and learning from home?

“It depends on what we see in the fall,” said Dr. John Tuinema, Algoma Public Health acting medical officer of health, speaking to SooToday Thursday.

“What we have seen with COVID so far is that in the fall and into the winter when it starts getting colder is that we do see an increase in transmission of the disease. It’s likely due to people congregating indoors a bit more than they would in the summer.”    

“If there was a new variant to emerge that was very severe and very transmissible then there may be a need to bring back some of those measures but hopefully if it’s just an increase (in COVID cases) what we can do is tailor measures, either locally or as province, in order to meet that concern. If it’s a small increase then perhaps masking in public might be all that it takes to keep things at bay, whereas if there’s a very large increase then we may need to look at some of those other concerns, but it's very hard to know,” Tuinema said.

“It’s just a question of how much of an increase that will be.”

A COVID resurgence in the fall may not necessarily be a return to the dark early days of the pandemic.

“There are currently some new vaccines that are in development that may be available at that time that might be able to help. It would depend on variants that may or may not occur at that time. We currently are seeing the BA.5 variant starting to increase and it is a bit more transmissible but we don’t know if it’s more severe or not, so there are a number of factors that would decide how big the wave is and how big of an impact it has. How big that is remains to be seen,” Tuinema said.

As Dr. Theresa Tam urges Canadians to get booster shots, does APH foresee another vaccine mandate in the works?

“If we have newer vaccines that are more effective and we’re dealing with a new serious variant then they may be mandated in some situations but it really would depend on the situation as it unfolds in the fall but it’s too early to know if that would be required,” Tuinema said.

SARS came and went.

The H1N1 virus came and went.

Will we ever be through with COVID?

Is it possible for the medical community to come up with a one-time COVID vaccine?

“There are things about COVID that are different compared to other diseases that made them a lot easier to eliminate than COVID,” Tuinema said.

Comparing COVID to measles, Tuinema said “once you’ve had it you have lifetime immunity. The vaccine for measles is effective…whereby COVID has mutated, evading the vaccine and becoming more transmissible and harder to control with a one shot vaccine.”

Meanwhile, eligibility for third and fourth booster doses can be found on the APH website.

Booster doses are available through the vaccination clinic and local pharmacies.

The fourth dose is recommended by public health authorities for people who are 60 and older, along with people who are immunocompromised.

There are currently no issues with supply of the vaccine for those who wish to receive it in the APH region, Tuinema said.