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There's good news (warm weather) and bad (flooding?) (update)

NEWS RELEASES CONSERVATION AUTHORITY/MINISTRY OF NATURAL RESOURCES ************************* The Sault Ste. Marie Region Conservation Authority would like to issue a statement to residents in regard to current watershed conditions.

NEWS RELEASES

CONSERVATION AUTHORITY/MINISTRY OF NATURAL RESOURCES

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The Sault Ste. Marie Region Conservation Authority would like to issue a statement to residents in regard to current watershed conditions.

There is a weather system tracking across northern Ontario which has the potential to bring precipitation amounts of 25-30 mm with potential additional runoff from snow melting over a wide area.

This storm will create a potentially hazardous situation for Sunday, November 23 to Tuesday, November 25 and will affect much of the area with heavy snow, freezing rain, rain and temperatures well above freezing.

The main concern will be temperatures warming to above freezing throughout the watershed in conjunction with expected rainfall.

Warmer air will begin pushing into the system throughout the day Saturday.

There is the potential threat of freezing rain Sunday into Monday ahead of the rain. Rainfall amounts of 20-35 mm are possible throughout the watershed.

The local streams and rivers in our watersheds are currently flowing at normal levels and have the capacity to accept precipitation and runoff from the anticipated rainfall amounts.

If the predicted rainfall occurs with temperatures above freezing (3-5 C) there may be localized flooding in areas of poor drainage.

The areas of poor drainage include areas of the city of Sault Ste. Marie where catch basins may be blocked.

Warmer temperatures, above freezing during the day and overnight, combined with extensive rain could result in melting significant portions of the local snow pack.

The amount of runoff anticipated from this rain event is expected to raise water levels significantly in the short term and rivers and streams have a slight potential to reach flood criteria.

The flood control channels owned and maintained by the Sault Ste. Marie Region Conservation Authority are currently flowing well below normal.

The flood control channels will experience a rise in water levels.

It is important to remember that the water in rivers, streams and the channels will be fast flowing during and after the rainfall event.

The Sault Ste. Marie Region Conservation Authority will continue to closely monitor stream flows across the watershed.

The Sault Ste. Marie Region Conservation Authority would like to extend a warning to residents and visitors to use extreme caution when close to rivers, creeks and channels.

Potential increases in water levels and flows can be especially dangerous and stream banks can be slippery.

Please keep children and pets away from fast flowing rivers and streams.

This statement is in effect until Monday November 24, 2014.

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The Ministry of Natural Resources – Sault Ste. Marie District is advising area residents that a Watershed Conditions Statement - Flood Outlook is in effect in the District.

Residents should keep a close watch on conditions, regularly check for updated messages and stay away from fast-moving rivers and streams.

MNR is closely monitoring the weather and developing watershed conditions.

Further updates will be issued as appropriate.

TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Description of Weather System

The probability of a Low Pressure System developing and moving into the Great Lakes, impacting much of northeastern and southern Ontario continues to look very high.

This storm will create a potentially hazardous situation for Sunday, November 23 to Tuesday, November 25 and will affect much of the province with heavy snow, freezing rain, rain and temperatures well above freezing.

Warmer air will begin pushing into southern parts of the province throughout the day Saturday, as winds will become stronger out of the south/southwest.

There is the potential threat of freezing rain Sunday into Monday ahead of the rain. Rainfall amounts of 15-35mm are possible throughout northeastern and southern Ontario.

Monday afternoon, into Tuesday morning will likely see colder air rush in behind this system to bring the risk of a flash freeze scenario to all regions receiving rainfall and melting snow packs.

Description of Current Conditions

The Sault Ste. Marie area has experienced a particularly wet fall, with some areas still experiencing above normal water levels and flows.

The early onset of winter has already brought significant snow accumulations to the area, from lake effect snow in the 40-60cm range.

Warmer temperatures, above freezing during the day and overnight, combined with extensive rain could result in melting significant portions of the local snow pack.

Forecast models are indicating temperatures on Monday of 6-10 degrees above freezing and the melting of 20-35mm of water equivalent snowfall.

Should the above conditions materialize local flooding could be expected.

A close watch on local forecasts and conditions is recommended.

Expiry Date: this message will be in effect until (or updated before) Monday November 24, 12:00pm

Terminology: Notification Levels

WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT - FLOOD OUTLOOK: gives early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high winds or other conditions

WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT – WATER SAFETY: indicates that high flows, melting ice or other factors could be dangerous for such users as boaters, anglers and swimmers but flooding is not expected.

FLOOD WATCH: potential for flooding exists within specific watercourses and municipalities

FLOOD WARNING: flooding is imminent or occurring within specific watercourses and municipalities.

A close watch on local conditions and weather forecasts from Environment Canada is recommended.

Environment Canada bulletins can be found at http://weather.gc.ca/

The Surface Water Monitoring Centre public webpage can be found here: www.ontario.ca/flooding

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