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Ontario Election 2014 Prediction - NDP Majority!

Thursday, June 12, 2014   by: Mac Headrick

 What? An NDP majority! 

Have I suffered a complete mental breakdown?  Perhaps I’m under the influence of a recently developed powerful hallucinogenic. None of the above. I just want to get your attention. You are only young once but you can be immature for the rest of your life. I am posting this column at 6.40 a.m. today, well before the time the polls will open. The following is my predictions of the outcome of Ontario Election 2014. 

Please remember the following. The only thing I really care about is that Ontarians exercise their right to vote. I do not care who you vote for and why. My intent is not to recommend any particular candidate or party. I follow the public opinion polls closely. The recent history of political polls has not been very good, examples, the British Columbia/Alberta provincial elections. 

Locally I believe David Orazietti will be returning to Toronto as our local representative. David was first elected in 2003 and named Minister of Natural Resources in Feb. /2013. Being the sitting member and a Cabinet Minister is not a bad position to run from. Even non supporters of Mr. Orazietti will admit he has been successful in his representation of the Sault Ste Marie riding. 

What about the gas plant scandal? This situation will have a minor effect and will lower the margin of victory. In Orazietti’s favour is the fact he became a cabinet minister after Dalton McGuinty resigned. There is also the political gift given to David by the Conservative Party. It can be summed up in one word “fear”. Sault Ste Marie is a small city. Everyone is related to or friends of a public service employee. Politics aside our city cannot afford to lose one job, much less hundreds. Any lost government jobs will not be replaced by corporate tax cuts. 

What about the NDP as an alternative? The NDP are not tainted by scandal. If the NDP was close to defeating Orazietti, I believe Andrea Horwath would have visited Sault Ste Marie. The fact Horwath chose to stop in Sudbury suggests NDP insiders consider the Sudbury riding the better chance. Despite the endorsements of some large local unions I believe non Conservative voters in Sault Ste Marie will pick the candidate and party that they think can best beat Tim Hudak. 

Two days ago I would have stated the Liberal Party will win a large minority, close to a majority victory. Something has happened in the last three days. Polling companies use different methods but it appears the NDP vote has rebounded somewhat. Ipsos Reid has the Liberals at 33%; Conservatives 31% and the NDP at 30%. Abacus Data have the Liberals at 35%; Conservatives 32% and NDP 26%. EKOS have the Liberals at 36.6 %; Conservatives 30.2 and the NDP 21.5 %.   

Depending on what polling company is correct of course will determine the final result. The Progressive Conservatives are very motivated and I believe will get their vote out. Apparently when the Conservatives win a riding it is usually by a large margin. Now this is fine but it indicates their vote isn’t as efficient as the Liberals. Has the NDP vote rebounded in the Toronto area as some final day polls suggest? This will have a huge impact on the Liberal Party picking up enough seats to form a majority. Can the NDP get their vote out? Remember the NDP source of workers union members are split up this time. 

It could be a long evening before the final decision is rendered. My prediction is when all is said and done Ontario will have a Liberal minority government. A week ago I thought the NDP was going to be reduced to approximately 11 or 12 seats. This could still happen. If the final day polls are correct (and their supporters actually vote) they might retain the number they had at dissolution. I could be far out in left field (deliberate choice of words) but I believe the Progressive Conservatives will remain close to their seat total (37) realized in 2011. 

As I see it Ontario might be in the same position after this election as before. I am very curious as to your opinion. It is at least as valid (perhaps more so) than mine. Take care and please exercise your right to vote. 

Whatever the outcome the sun will rise tomorrow and the mosquitoes will still bite.

Comments
11
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right wing 6/12/2014 8:23:42 AM Report

Mac,

Polls are what they are.
As we know it ain't over till it's over.
Just like the L.A.- NYR game last night...I'm sure some folks lost betting money on that one.

Conservatives with a minority.

....and of course David O will return but it won't be with my vote.

If the Liberals are returned then this province deserves all it will get (more of the same) and all it will not.
Sam C 6/12/2014 12:28:28 PM Report

Mac, Mac, Mac. We tried that once. Once was enough.

Especially this time, where Horwath has proven she has no interest in working with the other parties, and forced this unnecessary election.

No, Mac, it will be a Liberal victory, but with another minority government.

Unfortunately, this will not put the bickering and squabbles to rest, and we will have another two years or so of ineffective government before another election is forced.

Perhaps by that time there will be new leadership and the parties might actually return to trying to work together for the good of the citizens, instead of to advance their own causes.
mac headrick 6/12/2014 12:46:11 PM Report

Sam read the first paragraft again.

My prediction is a Liberal minority.
Javaman 6/12/2014 1:55:53 PM Report

It was the Cons election to lose...IF...and only IF...they had rid themselves of Hudak AND not gone on with this delusional million jobs idea.Also..threatening to take away good paying jobs will also cost them dearly. I had a big decision to make like all other voters. I wanted to punish David O for not standing up to his bosses and could not bear the thought of voting for Hudak...so...I went NDP for the first time in my life.
KENNEDY919 6/12/2014 2:39:52 PM Report

Decline in popular vote for the NDP will translate into more Liberal seats that will most likely push the Liberals closer to a Liberal majority.
Many people know there is a desperate need for fiscal responsibility but they refuse to accept the hard line of Hudak and will never equate the NDP with any semblance of Fiscal Prudence. This bodes well for the Liberals sitting in the middle despite their bad track record. They have overspent. But many ridings like the Sault have reaped the benefits of that overspending.Wynne has been able to distance herself from the McQuinty report card and simply is more appealing to the voter than Hudak or Horwath.
right wing 6/12/2014 6:22:03 PM Report

Javaman

It is too bad that you let the media do your thinking for you, re: your comment about Hudak eliminating good paying jobs...completely untrue statement...but hey, it seems to be the way with folks.
Oldie Goldie 6/12/2014 6:50:42 PM Report

Sam C. You are quoting the Liberal line when you say that Horwath had no interest in supporting another Liberal Budget.
Horwath had been criticized for supporting the Liberal Minority for TOO long.
Saying that Horwath caused this Election is a false accusation.
The 2014 Budget was never voted on and the Liberals wanted to get a Majority so Wynne called for the Election !
Again saying that Ontario tried the New Democrats once and never again shows a tainted mind.
It was 24 years ago that the New Democrats won the 1990 Election and their record of spending never even came near to that of Mike Harris and McGuinty. Harris and McGuinty put Ontario further in the hole than Bob Rae ever did---By Far !
Sam C 6/13/2014 4:11:00 PM Report

Oldie... I quote no one, and I don't give a rat's furry hind end what any "party line" might be. I am quite capable of drawing my own conclusions, thank you.

I made thastcomment about Horwath long before the budget was tabled, when she first announced her party would not support the budget. She displayed no interest whatsoever in even having discussion with the government, and expressed her intention to "topple the government" months before an election was even a possibility.
Oldie Goldie 6/15/2014 9:07:21 AM Report

Sam C. Horwath supported several previous Liberal Budgets before this latest one. To say that she had no interest in a Minority Govt. is dead wrong.
The Conservatives never supported any of the Liberal budgets but you do not say that the Conservatives caused this latest Election.
Strange and biased thinking is my opinion of your comments about Horwath.
Javaman 6/15/2014 12:17:42 PM Report

Wynne has a very likeable personality. Hudak was the opposite. Horwath seemed like a duck out of water. David O has a very likeable personality too. Celia Ross was seen as a nice old frumpy retired person. Fremlin never got out of the starting gate and we never got to know the man. The fact that he supported Hudak would turn many off.
So...when in doubt...vote for the person(s) you like...thus a Liberal win in the Soo and the province.
The likeability factor was at play in a big way.
mac headrick 6/16/2014 7:05:10 AM Report

Javaman I agree likeable critical especially on the provincial front.

IMO as important as the likeable factor was the fear factor. Hudak's plan frightened people even conservatives.
Comments
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