Onatrio Election 2014 - So FarSaturday, May 17, 2014 by: Mac Headrick
The original plan for this week’s column was to do an analysis of the economic plan of the three major parties in the Ontario June12/2014 election. I’ve put this project off due to the fact the NDP has yet to release their platform. With only four weeks left until the election I imagine that Andrea Horwath will do this in the near future. For today I am going to list my highlights of the campaign so far and take a look at the local candidates.
Number one idea for saving money for the province comes from the Green Party. Of course it will never be implemented as it is logical and makes sense. The Green Party wants the Catholic and public school boards to merge. Imagine the savings that would be realized by ending this wasteful duplication of service. The Green Party support fell to 2.93 % in the 2011 election from a high of 8% in 2007. To bad all the other parties in Ontario react in shock if this question is raised in the campaign.
Say what you want about Tin Hudak, he has presented “a bold vision” for Ontario. He is very clear on his objectives, fire 100,000 civil servants and create a million new jobs. It has been pointed out that there are 556,000 unemployed people presently in Ontario, 785,000 if you also count the discouraged unemployed. Wait a minute… this is not the time to discuss specifics about economics.
I like the local Conservative Party decision to select a local man Rod Fremlin to run as their representative. Rod has always been a true, blue Conservative. He is not a parachuted in candidate. Also, being a political novice in politics may not be a disadvantage. Rod grew up on Calabogee Road at the same time I lived there. Please do not hold this fact against him. A lot of great men came form this area. This is my story and I’m sticking to it. I believe Rod Fremlin is going to do well in the election and will help the Conservative Party. Of course David Orazietti will be the main beneficiary from this.
Before I look at the local candidates please keep the following in mind. When I state the individual who has the best chance of winning I am using the following perspective. If I had to bet everything I owe on who will win where would I place my money? I am not recommending any specific candidate. I am not stating my preference or trying to influence your decision. My number one objective is a wish that every election people get out and vote.
Of course the favourite to win locally is David Orazietti. Now, in 2011 Orazietti captured approximately 55% of the vote. That margin of victory may diminish somewhat this time around. I have spoken to many Conservatives and NDP supporters over the years. Even when being very critical about the Liberal Party no one will deny that David Orazietti has been successful in representing this riding and bringing investments to this community. There a number of other factors that is going to insure an Orazietti victory.
He is a cabinet minister which normally helps a politician seeking re-election. It should be noted David is not a McGuinty but a Wynne cabinet minister. The Conservative candidate Rod Fremlin is the real deal. This means Mr. Fremlin should improve upon the Conservative Party 11.83% popular vote finish last election. My main point is Conservatives will support their party. The NDP had 30.87% last election. They may find it difficult to retain this vote. Celia Ross is a good candidate but may loose ground locally due to fear of Tim Hudak. Remember the major unions in Ontario are afraid of Tim Hudak. They are recommending their members vote for the party best situated to beat the Conservatives on a riding to riding basis.
How will the following political dynamics play out locally? The Conservative Party represents the right. On the left you now have the Liberal Party. The NDP well I’m not sure, they may be on the right, left or center, only time will tell. Could David Orazietti loose locally? Anything is possible but come June 13/2014 I bet he will be returning to the legislature in Toronto. However, it may not be as a cabinet minister.
As I see it the political fireworks will not occur locally. The voting total in 2011 was less than 2007. I hope more Saultites exercise their right to vote on June 12/2014. I am curious as to what you feel the outcome will be both provincially and locally.
Have a great long weekend.
Note: Comments that appear on the site are not the opinion of SooToday.com. If you see an abusive post, please click the link beside the post to report it.
KDawg 5/17/2014 5:09:22 PM Report
"Even when being very critical about the Liberal Party no one will deny that David Orazietti has been successful in representing this riding and bringing investments to this community. There a number of other factors that is going to insure an Orazietti victory."
Mac, what you don't seem to want to acknowledge is that Orazietti is part of the Liberal machine that has destroyed Ontario's economy and cost taxpayers $Billions in waste, corruption and cronyism. Hevoted with them every step of the way, and as far as I know, NEVER spoke out against the corruption and thievery in his won government.
Who cares if Orazietti is throwing some of our own crumbs at us now that it's election time!?! He's part of the problem, and the sooner he and the Liberals are shown the door, the better.
fatafr 5/17/2014 5:14:33 PM Report
Good comments and impartial overview of the local upcoming provincial election Mac. I too, if I were a betting man, would put my bet on Orazietti getting back in. But, there's still time in this election. There's the old saying, vote as the party leader is doing in the polls. The perfect example is how Jack Layton influenced the voting; just look at Quebec to believe that the leader can sway the outcome in other ridings, even with high schools students as NDP candidates.
Then you have to look at the fact that less than 50% of the electorate do actually vote; who are those voters ? If,say 30% of these, are the ones who absolutely despise what Dalton McGuinty's liberals did with all the scandalous spending accusations. Do these scandels stick to Orazietti, or does Orazietti get a reprieve and do voters vote on his own record ? I'm not sure.........
I do not think that the NDP's Celia Ross resonates with the average NDP supporter as did the former MPP and MP, Tony Martin.
Plain and simple. We saw how she did in 2011 and I would suggest this will be her last kick at the "political" can.
I have not seen any Conservative signs out there anywhere. They're off the gate slow, again. I agree, that a local candidate was a very important move. Fremlin does have name notoriety, but Rod himself is not that well known. How does that play out ?
Again, having 3 reasonably strong local candidates helps the incumbent, and only solidifies the split vote. If it's true that the unions are asking their members to vote for whoever can beat the Conservative candidate, then I would suggest that, in SSM, Orazietti most definitely is sitting in the drivers seat.
I would also suggest that Horwath made a poor decision in forcing this election and she will be the biggest loser on June 12. The NDP will end up with less seats than they currently have.
The polls are going to swing back and forth between Hudak and Wynne. The debates should prove to be both interesting and play a huge roll in which party ends up forming the next Ontario government. There's a lot of union money yet to be spent blasting the Conservatives. There's lots of promises yet to be made. And Horwath is pulling a Justin Trudeau move, stalling on what her party's platform is. Don't wait too long Andrea...........You need some traction, and soon.
So, in summation, Orazietti wins his seat locally; I'll go out on a limb and say the Conservatives form a minority government.
Just my thoughts.........
mac headrick 5/17/2014 5:29:20 PM Report
KDawg I am not endosing David. My opinion that he will be re-elected, is a prediction.
If you had to bet everything you own whom would you suggest will get the most votes locally?
The most important thing for me in this election is people exercise their right to vote.
Mr. Poster 5/18/2014 7:40:32 AM Report
It is true David brought a lot of money to this city...money the government really did not have. However....if they are going to dip into the provincial credit card...we might as well go for our share of the bucks. My biggest complaint regarding David is that he approved every move McGuilty and Wynne made financially in this province. I would like to have seem him disagree with what turned out to be major scandals. Having said that it is a well known fact that one must tow the party line if one is to be part of a political machine. He really had little choice but to vote with the government
There is no doubt this leaves a bad taste in the mouths of sooites who feel he should have backed his constituents and not the scandal plagued Liberal party,
Unions are in fear of Hudak...he scares voters...this will cost the Conservative party dearly.
Horwath should have pulled the plug long and go but decided to play politics and hold out until it was an opportune time FOR HER. When she finally pulled that plug she really goofed. The budget presented to her contained many things the NDP wanted.
Voters know she pulled to plug in her interests only and as the polls indicate...she is now slipping badly in the polls. the NDP are now irrelevant in this election.
In conclusion I see an easy win for David and a minority Liberal government.
Oldie Goldie 5/18/2014 2:06:59 PM Report
Mac: You said that David O. is a Cabinet Minister now---Funny how McGuinty didn't see him as a Cabinet Minister because he had so many of his friends in Southern Ontario to give goodies to.
Actually David O. has got involved in several situations in his Portfolio as a Cabinet Minister that did not boost his popularity.
David O. might win here but what will he be able to do for us in a Minority Conservative Government that is being predicted by the recent Polls.
mac headrick 5/18/2014 3:15:52 PM Report
Oldie Goldie what cabinet situations that hurt David? The resumption of the bear hunt helps.
I have been following the polls a couple recently seemed to be opposite in their conclusions.
Your are correct David's influence would be less in a Conservative minority.
MYPOINT 5/19/2014 9:37:46 AM Report
Can anyone please inform me as to where these Sootoday polls are located?
I predict a Liberal minority government because HUDAK is threatening to 'gut' union contracts at will if we elect him. NDP are most likely not going to get in because of their willingness to support the Liberals up until the budget ( which was actually not a bad budget per se ) and then they pulled the plug for personal reasons only.
As always, your views may differ :)
Oldie Goldie 5/19/2014 10:31:19 AM Report
Mac: Restricted Areas that were once open was one thing some people got mad at him for.
His support for selling the Northern Railroad was another.
He also supported many other things that the Ontario Liberals spent big bucks for.
Closing of some Provincial Parks in the North.
As a Cabinet Minister from the North he could have fought for the North on many issues but he did not !
Mac: I believe that you have a short memory when it comes to these things just like most voters.
David O.is always seeking any Photo Ops that he can get and is trying to fool the people by advertising the same things that he has done for this area over and over again ad nauseum.
His accomplishments are put in Ads constantly and they rarely change he just releases them when he feels that people may forget.
right wing 5/19/2014 1:40:13 PM Report
Yes the polls have been showing an overall Liberal lead province wide...but...PC's have 42% support amongst voters aged 65+ against the 34% held by the liberals of the the same group.
This is one of the key age groups that actually show up to vote.
In other words...it's who shows up at the voting stations that counts.
mac headrick 5/19/2014 6:20:15 PM Report
right wing the most recent EKOS poll indicates what you stated.
I find it interesting that perhaps a problem facing the Conservatives is the dropping of NDP support.
It apparently is going to the Liberals. Andrea Horwath does not have me on paid retainer for advice. This is a mistake. I stated before I didn't agree with her calling this election.
Lots of time left. The opposition to Hudak appears to be going to the Liberals.
I believe the NDP will release their platform this week.
Mr. Poster 5/19/2014 6:45:24 PM Report
Why was Horwath and her platform not ready for day 1? It just emphasized her incompetence.
Oldie Goldie 5/19/2014 7:00:07 PM Report
Mac: Andrea Horwath did NOT call this election---That is the Liberal spin on it. How can you blame the New Democrats for, finally, pulling their support for the spendthrift Liberals.
If she had pulled her support 2 years ago would you still say that Horwath caused it ?
Horwath was promised a 15 % reduction in Auto Insurance and the Liberals failed to deliver on that !
The Liberals are victims of their own failures and wanted an Election to get a Majority so that they continue to screw the Ontario Taxpayers.
The Liberals called this Election not Horwath !
DavPic 5/21/2014 11:55:17 AM Report
A small inaccuracy with this article:
Tim Hudak is not going to fire 100k workers, the majority of the jobs cut will be lost through attrition... this means that as older workers retire over the next few years new ones won't be hired to fill their positions. The idea that he is going to fire 100k people is completely wrong.
The current liberal attack ads showing public servants saying they are being fired is deceiving.
mac headrick 5/21/2014 2:34:30 PM Report
Dav, Tim Hudak has stated he would eliminate JK in the schools. Those 20,000 workers would be terminated, fired whatever words you choose immediately not by attrition.
Now perhaps Mr. Hudak should identify what workers he is getting rid of.
Locally we need every job yes by attrition is better but it doesn't help our local economy why we wait for the 1000000 new jobs.
right wing 5/21/2014 5:13:43 PM Report
Don't you know....only P.C.'s do attack ads...hypocrites.
No matter, this made my day....
"With three weeks to go before the June 12 Ontario election, a new Abacus Data poll shows the Kathleen Wynne Liberals and the Tim Hudak Progressive Conservatives are tied with 33% support among committed voters."
Hudak is going to take Ontario, just you wait and see......
mac headrick 5/21/2014 9:11:41 PM Report
right wing with a minority or majority?
The polls are all over the place.
Imagine the NDP holding the balance of power. But with the way Horwath is sounding perhaps they could work together.
right wing 5/22/2014 7:46:00 AM Report
I liked to say majority but I have to be realistic and call it with a minority.
Mr. Poster 5/23/2014 7:55:32 AM Report
I AM NOT SURE WHAT happened to the NDp this time around. They act like they did not know an election was coming and are very late in getting their so called platform out to the public .Horwath is not doing well in the polls and I suspect she will lose her job if this trend continues. She blew it this time around and could have and should have been better prepared.
Budster 5/23/2014 6:33:21 PM Report
This race is so close it could go either way. In the Sault David will win but with a smaller margine than last time. It would seem that Hudak is gaining support from the NDP. but I still think we will have a Lib. minority gov't with the Cons. as official opposition this time around.
Note: Comments that appear on the site are not the opinion of SooToday.com. If you see an abusive post, please click the link beside the post to report it.