Ontario Legislature - The Dance Begins

Finally after a long Christmas break (compliments of Dalton McGuinty), our provincial politicians returned to work. It didn’t take long for the three main parties to establish their approaches to the present Legislature session. With the Liberal cabinet coming to town this Friday I thought I would provide an update on the first week back in months of the Ontario legislature.

The first public-opinion poll (Forum Research), since Wynne’s throne speech had the following results… Conservatives 36%; Liberals 29%, NDP 28% and the Green Party at 5%. I was not surprised at these results. The only poll that really counts is the one conducted on Election Day, but the above numbers do indicate a trend and that I believe will influence the approaches the three major parties take in the near future.    

There have been several comments on this site about the value (or lack of) of the Liberal power brokers venturing to Sault Ste Marie. My personal opinion is that it is a good thing. With the present size of the Liberal cabinet and the resulting support staff (media etc) this Friday will be like a mini invasion. Now, politicians do have to eat, sleep and on occasion drink. Also beside David Orazietti getting in some photo opportunities, local politicians will get a chance to bend the ear of Premier Wynne and the Liberal Cabinet. There has been much speculation on the future of the OLG. This city and its provincial member have to take every advantage to stress the importance of this employer remaining in Sault Ste Marie. With Ontario’s present financial position I wouldn’t expect any major spending announcements. 

The NDP leader, Andrea Horwath, has stated she will not force an election for the Liberal’s gas plant cancellation. Horwath had called for a public inquiry. This issue is a good example of the approach the NDP is going to take. They will demand this or that and throw in something else. The Liberal party eventually will give them “this” and perhaps a little of “that”. I have stated before that a public inquiry would be a waste of money. There is also some benefit to the NDP and Conservative parties the longer the gas plant issue remains in the public eye. Once the next election is over it will disappear into Ontario political history. 

The NDP have returned to a more traditional level of support at 28%. They have done well under Andrea Horwath, but if an election were held today they wouldn’t make any significant gains. It appears to me that based on past history the NDP support goes down in Ontario the closer they get to election day. The anti Conservative vote has two opposition choices, the NDP or Liberal parties. My point is that even at 28% the NDP vote at this time will not result in an equivalent number of seats. It is to the NDP advantage to push their agenda and find common ground with the Liberals. It is ironic that the NDP’s major rival (and visa-versa) is the political party they intend to keep in power for the next few months (or years). 

Tim Hudak didn’t support the Throne Speech. Once again the Conservatives will be on the side lines looking in. In the past (up to last week) I would have added a couple of critical comments about this approach. Recently I have been reassessing my view of the provincial Tories. I have always taken the approach that in sports you should never underestimate and always respect your opponent.  Politics is a lot like sports. It is true that in the past two provincial elections the Conservatives performed poorly. It is almost like they managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory to insure a Liberal victory. 

Due to the Conservative popularity in rural ridings in southern Ontario their popular vote results in more seats. At 36% they win a minority, at 40% popular vote depending on the split, they could have a majority. I happen to disagree with many of the Conservative positions as outlined in their series of “white papers”.  Perhaps I have missed the point of these positions. Tim Hudak has decided to take the following approach. Before the next election Hudak intends to solidify the Conservative support. He has accomplished that. He also wants to be very crystal clear on where he stands relative to public sector workers. Well let’s see… wage freeze for the foreseeable future and Ontario becoming a right to work state. I think that has been accomplished. Cashing in on rural Ontario’s grievances such as wind mills, electrical rates, and made-in-Toronto solutions for Ontario isn’t that difficult to achieve. Actually having the NDP and Liberal parties doing their dance buys the Conservatives time to try and figure out where they can increase their support. Stephen Harper in Ottawa has a majority government with just a little more popular support than the Conservatives presently enjoy in Ontario. 

I am not surprised that with the election of Premiere Wynne the Liberal Party has regained some momentum. Considering the recent Liberal record the only logical political assumption is they will suffer a significant defeat in the next election. The following points have to be taken into account. Much of the electorate anger has been directed at the former Liberal leader Dalton McGuinty. He is no longer around to be a target. Kathleen Wynne’s most valuable commodity is time. She hopes the economy will improve. She needs someone to prop up the Liberals. Due to their own self preservation the NDP have limited options. They will support the Liberal party. 

I have always predicted the major education unions (include all public sector unions) will make up with the Liberal party. The public high school teachers have decided to participate in extracurricular activities. I expect the public elementary teachers will follow in the next week. Relative to this last point the public elementary union leadership is beginning to realize that the Catholic elementary system is promoting itself as a viable option to the public system because it has extracurricular activities. Where else does any union member in Ontario have to go? The warm embrace of Tim Hudak or the Liberal and NDP parties. 

It is true the sheer size and number of Liberal problems in Ontario is breathtaking. The fact is that less than 50% of the eligible voters in Ontario even bother to vote. That means the next election will be decided by the “true believers”. Election results are determined on a riding by riding basis. For example, Sault Ste Marie is represented by Liberal David Orazietti. His popular margin of victory most likely will decrease somewhat. I anticipate David will take a more “working for you” approach with less emphasis on the Liberal brand. 

As I see it, the next few months should result in an interesting dance in the Ontario legislature. The level of co-operation will be determined by the most recent political polls. 

Have a great weekend. Remember to please adjust your driving according to the road conditions.        

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