Liberal Convention Ontario 2013

The Liberal Party of Ontario is meeting in Toronto today to select a new leader. This will be the subject of today’s column. My intention is to update it as results become available. I suppose conventional political wisdom would dictate that regardless of whoever becomes the next Liberal leader, their reign will be short lived. The longer a party is in power the more political baggage it collects. Add to this the ongoing war with the unions, a struggling economy and a massive deficit and defeat at the polls should be automatic. 

The only thing that the Liberals have going for them is Tim Hudak. The Conservative Party of Ontario has snatched election defeat from the jaws of victory in the last two elections. I believe the Liberals actually believe they have a chance to remain in power. This belief will guide their voting today. As for a prediction l will go with Sandra Pupatello. I believe if Mrs. Pupatello succeeds her election will benefit the political aspirations of our representative David Orazietti. Translation David will get a shot at a cabinet position.

Anyways consider this column as a work in progress. Please feel free to comment and check back. After the second ballot Sandra Pupatello had a slim lead but Charles Sousa and Gerald Kennedy both went over to Kathleen Wynne. Final result; Wynne 1150 votes to Pupatello 866. 

What does the selection of Kathleen Wynne mean to the Liberal Party and Ontario politics? Your guess is as good (or better) than mine. Listed below are my initial gut reactions to the Wynne selection and the approach she will take in the legislature. 

1. While there was a leadership race being decided in the old Maple Leaf Gardens a large union rally was taking place outside. I expect all the major Ontario unions (education and provincial employees) will be contacted within the next 48 hours by the newly elected Premier Wynne. Wynne has stated very clearly she wants the opportunity to rebuild the strained relationship between them and the Liberal government. Premiere Wynne was handed a significant gift this week from Tim Hudak when he promised to temporairily eliminate junior kindergarten while laying off thousands of support jobs. The Liberal Party of Ontario needs labour peace. The education and government unions do not want to see a Conservative majority. Perhaps predicting a future love-in might be excessive but l believe all sides in the labour dispute are motivated to achieve some sort of labour peace.
2. I do not believe given their present standings in the polls that the Liberal Party wants an election at this time. The Liberals could go lower in the polls but l am betting they would rather wait. In this regard Wynne will reach out to both parties to find common ground.
3. Now l stated “both parties” above but of course the potential for agreement is significantly more between the Liberal and NDP parties. In this regard l believe Andrea Horwath and Kathleen Wynne can work together. Now of course the NDP and/or the Liberals soar by 20% in the polls and all bets are off.
4. No political party wants to be seen as forcing an unnecessary election. Of course it is a game played out by all political parties. For the time being the Liberals and NDP will play nice. I am not sure about the Conservatives. Tim Hudak seems more partial to forcing the government’s hand.
5. I expect the Legislature to be recalled almost immediately.
6. Last but not least there shouldn’t  be any more photo-ops with the smiling face of Dalton McGuinty. 

As l see it history was made by the selection of the first female Premier of Ontario. Now the question is how long will Kathleen Wynne survive in this position?

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