Thanksgiving Political Turkey 2012
Saturday, October 06, 2012 by: Mac Headrick
Before l get into today’s column l feel it is important to focus in on the real pressing issue that will face most Canadians in the upcoming week. Of course l am referring to the timeless question, how many ways are there to make use of leftover turkey from Thanksgiving dinner? Also of personal importance to me is the query should only “real” mayo be used in my turkey sandwiches or is it all right to use a calorie-reduced product?
Apparently some young guy has announced he is seeking the leadership of the Liberal Party. Hang on for a second, damn l cannot remember his name. Oh l got it, a Justin Trudeau fellow has stepped forth to save the Liberal brand. What do you think are his chances? At one time the Liberal Party was my reference point on how to succeed at politics. A succession of poor leadership choices and the emergence of the Conservatives under Stephen Harper has left the Liberals in disarray.
Of course if Justin Trudeau had any other last name he wouldn’t be seriously considered for the top job. That point aside, l believe the timing is perfect for him to seek the leadership. The Liberal Party has nowhere to go but up. They hit rock bottom in the last election. Conventional political wisdom would suggest Trudeau is too young, not enough experience etc. Well, he has to start somewhere and if he needs to take a political beating why not now.
Political leadership races are normally a time for a political party to define what they stand for and the direction they are going. This isn’t going to happen with the Liberals. With the entrance of Justin Trudeau the “race” is going to be a coronation. How does a political party keep its’ supporters (or potential voters) interested in a race where the outcome has already been decided. Is Justin Trudeau a fresh start for the Liberal Party or just a youthful version of the same out of touch old guard?
Stephen Harper and the Conservatives have succeeded by convincing western Canada and Ontario that they are the best politicians to manage the economy. Immigration has changed in Canada. This is important, as in the past the majority of new immigrants gravitated to the Liberal Party. Presently a majority of immigrates come from Asia and economic factors figure prominently in which political party they support.
How important is the managing of the economy to present Canadian politics? Well in Justin Trudeau’s coming out speech on Tuesday he identified three economic concerns that affect the middle class. Specifically they are the increasing cost of living, rising household debt and stagnating middle-class incomes. The challenge for Mr. Trudeau will be how he intends to address these issues.
I have reached the point in my political life where l hope for participation in the political process over supporting a specific party. Perhaps the Justin Trudeau entry may inspire and increase the participation of young Canadians in the political process. If this were to occur then l would consider his leadership bid a success.
As to what effect on the other political parties a Trudeau lead Liberal Party would have? The creation of more federal seats in urban areas in the next election favours the Conservatives. The NDP strength presently resides in Quebec. This creates a dilemma for Justin Trudeau. On one hand l could see his election helping the Liberals in Quebec. The problem is this doesn’t hurt the Conservatives as their political strength lies elsewhere (Ontario; western provinces). Also Trudeau does not want to appear to be anything but a younger version of a typical Quebec Liberal leader. The national Liberal Party cannot depend on any provincial Liberal government for help. For example how popular is Premiere McGuinty presently? In Quebec the Liberal Party recently lost an election. In British Columbia the ruling Liberals are having a difficult time.
Elections are won on a riding to riding basis. In Sault Ste Marie during the last election the Conservatives won by convincing Liberal supporters to come over to them. Now this was smart, successful politics…that is to the Conservatives. Even under a Liberal Party lead by an attractive candidate (Trudeau) how much interest will there be in any aspiring politician seeking the Liberal Party nomination locally?
The bottom line is, in my opinion, Justin Trudeau’s leadership will help the Liberal Party. Of course the main reason for this view is the Liberals have nowhere to go but up. Unless Trudeau can some how influence his party to present a sound economic vision for Canada, his selection may guarantee future Conservative majority governments.
As l see it, a Trudeau lead Liberal Party will create some temporary positive interest. The difficult job for the Liberals will come in the next election.
Now l should answer the “important” question stated in my opening paragraph. The only way to eat a leftover turkey sandwich is with real mayo. Taste aside there are no calories or fat in real mayo when the sandwich being consumed is made from a holiday turkey. This is my story and l am sticking to it.
Happy Thanksgiving!
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fatafr 10/6/2012 12:21:59 PM ReportWhen one thinks that the Federal Liberals could not go any further into the depths of political unpopularity, they have, in my opinion, just accomplished this very feat. I'm not a political strategist by any means, but to put your faith in a somewhat young,unproven, certainly inexperienced and I would say, maybe because of his last name, somewhat egotistical individual as I believe Justin Trudeau is, the Liberals may have a rise in the polls followed by a drop where they will continue to remain the 3rd party.
One possible salvation might be that the NDP may have reached their peak and have only 1 way to go. The other is that the Conservatives find more novel ways to continue shooting themselves in the foot and thus, give the other 2 parties more credibility and coming into the next election, could possibly find themselves going from majority to minority status.
I believe the Conservatives control their own fate and if they're not careful and continue on their course of complacency, the Liberals could be the beneficiaries.
As far as Justin Trudeau, I don't think he's the answer for the Liberals; he may have aspirations of trying to pull off what Barack Obama did in 2008, with 2 exceptions, in Canada the votes splits at least 3 ways and Justin Trudeau just doesn't have the credentials to pull it off.
Mac, Happy Thanksgiving to you, your family and all your readers !!!
Retreaded 10/6/2012 2:30:27 PM ReportThe Liberals would be best to BEG the NDP to let them join their party. An amalgamation is the least the Liberals can hope for.
Norm 10/7/2012 7:43:49 PM ReportI don't think, at least I hope, voters don't fall for goodlooking, charisma, and a dad who a lot of people fell all over. Very few have even mentioned Deborah Coyne, she entered the race four months ago. She's pretty sharp, and has smore expierence than Turdeau. And Marc Garneau, he could be a very interesting person should he decide to run.
Cashmier 10/10/2012 11:58:12 AM ReportIn my opinion, the leadership of the Liberal Party is second to their ability to re-establish their political branding through a viable platform. They are SUPPOSED to be the party of the middle ground, able to balance economic and social issues. Chretien and Martin were able to do this - they need to prove they can be the common sense party again. When they cut spending to decrease the deficit they took a HUGE risk politically, but it paid off for them because Canadians could understand WHY and it made sense.
They need to simplify their platforms and be the party of common sense. No crazy, complicated ideas - a simple platform of responsible government, and if they capitalize on the mistakes the Conservatives have been making all over the place they should have a chance.
Cashmier 10/10/2012 12:05:43 PM ReportI forgot to add - I'm not counting out Justin Trudeau's ability to generate excitement and interest in the Liberal Party, he has the potential to reach a number of people who have been formerly disengaged from politics. He wouldn't be the worst choice from that perspective, but it is early days and at this point he has just put his name in the hat to run for leadership.
Oh, and I'd like to ask - how is Bryan Hayes working out for us? Did the magical formula of voting for someone in the leading party really work out - because I'm seeing a "yes man" who isn't representing the concerns of his people very well or delivering the money he was supposed to.
CCR 10/11/2012 10:04:54 AM ReportBryan Hayes has worked out spendidly for us. Let's take a look at what he has done that he said he would do in his election campaign. He said he would work toward elimination of the long gun registry, and it is gone. He said he would bring Federal dollars to bear upgrading the railway between SSM and Sudbury. The Federal share was $15 million and the work is underway with new bedding and rails being installed. He said he would work to ensure the new bridge plaza would be built. He has been central in the effort to encourage (through arbitration) an end to the stalemate over the purchase of the remaining six pieces of private property holding up the development. He said he would work toward establishing an invasive species research centre here in SSM and he has delivered. Now he has gone further to see that FedNor is supporting the SSM Innovation Centre and the Rural Agri-Innovation Network. He said he would begin studies toward the establishment of a new deepwater dock facility. The initial funding for the study has been granted and it is underway. He said he would initiate a new era of cooperation between our three levels of government locally. The Mayor,MPP, and Bryan have met regularly and without animosity to coordinate their eforts. One shining example of this was Bryan's initiative to create a Diamond Jubilee Medal awards committee with membership from all three levels of government to recommend recipients. This process was a total success. Bryan sits on caucuses and committeees of Parliament dealing with Steel, the Great Lakes, Veterans Affairs, and Public Spending. Only a year and a half into his first mandate, he has already achieved more than his predecessor ever dreamed of, and has established a healthy working relationship between all three levels of government to boot.
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